Singapore’s key exports jump 46.2% in August, exceeding forecasts

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 46.2 per cent in August, extending July’s 24.1 per cent expansion, as electronics shipments continued to surge due to artificial intelligence-related demand.

This marked the sixth consecutive month of double-digit expansion for the country’s NODX and far exceeded economists’ forecast of 35.1 per cent in a Bloomberg poll.

But analysts cautioned that while the Republic will continue to benefit from AI investments globally, the strong pace of growth may not be sustainable in the near term.

Electronics shipments grew by 131.8 per cent, up from 112 per cent in July, while non-electronics shipments expanded 12 per cent, according to figures released by Enterprise Singapore on Sept 17.

Disk media products and PCs led electronics shipments’ third straight month of triple-digit growth with the largest increase at 290.2 per cent and 237.9 per cent respectively, while integrated circuits grew 90.9 per cent.

DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng said that despite signs of factory supply constraints in the production of high-bandwidth memory chips, demand for AI-related hardware remains insatiable, supercharged by significant hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure.

The global AI infrastructure build-out will remain a durable tailwind for Singapore’s exports, analysts noted.

In particular, the US led Singapore’s top 10 NODX markets for electronics exports, recording a 342.4 per cent increase. Electronics exports to India and Indonesia also saw a more than twofold increase compared with July, which UOB economist Jester Koh attributed to strengthening demand driven by the rising adoption of AI solutions by businesses.

Meanwhile, electronics exports to China grew 86.7 per cent in August, higher than July’s 58.5 per cent, with the country’s rising modern infrastructure spending also accelerating demand for semiconductor chips, noted Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee.

OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling said that memory prices, advanced packaging demand and AI server orders will be key to watch as they may be a harbinger for Singapore’s export performance.

“How hyperscalers’ capex expansion, sovereign AI infrastructure spending and cloud investments play out in the months and quarters to come will also drive demand for components moving through Singapore’s manufacturing ecosystem,” she said.

If AI moves from building data centres and semiconductor production to broad enterprise adoption and AI commercialisation, Singapore could emerge as an overall winner due to regional headquarters expansion, financial services demand, enterprise software adoption and AI-related professional services.

Non-monetary gold led the expansion in non-electronics shipments with a 67 per cent rise. Specialised machinery grew 57.7 per cent, while medical apparatus saw a 22.1 per cent increase.

Although non-electronics shipments reversed from July’s contraction of 2.3 per cent, DBS’ Chua said this was partly due to low-base effects. He cited feedstock constraints and headwinds facing petrochemical exports as challenges that will continue to persist amid unresolved disruptions in the Middle East.

OCBC’s Ling said that while August’s NODX figures were impressive, they may overstate the underlying momentum as there was a low base a year ago, and the AI boom accelerated only in late 2025, “so one probably should not extrapolate the 46.2 per cent year-on-year growth indefinitely”.

She added that NODX growth is likely to moderate in the second half of 2026 due to high-base effects and that headline NODX growth percentages may soften even if demand remains healthy.

Singapore’s growth from the AI boom could also face risks from a sudden pullback in AI-related investments due to geopolitical tensions between the US and China that could include technology restrictions and tariffs, or a US economic slowdown or recession following the Federal Reserve’s Sept 16 decision to hike interest rates for the first time in three years.

DBS’ Chua noted that the implementation of a 12.5 per cent levy on selected Singapore goods, relating to US allegations of forced labour violations by the Republic from late July, appeared to have had a limited impact on NODX to the US due to various exemptions.

But the ongoing Section 301 investigations over alleged unfair trading practices could still have an impact on the Republic’s exports in the future.